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Trumpism

 What followed over the next 8 years was one of the most successful economic periods in American history.

  • 20 million new jobs created
  • Inflation dropped from 13.5% in 1980 to 4.1% in 1988
  • Unemployment fell from 7.6% to 5.5%
  • Net worth of average earning families grew by 27%
  • Real gross national product rose 26%
  • Interest rates down from 21.5% in 1980 to 10% in 1988

You know when a period of economic success has taken place when they name it after the leader and the term Reaganism economic policy is now embedded into American political history. It is true that Reagan held a degree in Economics but Donald Trump’s personal economic record is not too shabby either.

I have a feeling that Trump would be fired up to prove the world wrong and would want to make America great again. The American and world economy would be something he would take on as a personal challenge to establish his own place in history and he does seem to have the Midas touch.

How a President Trump would affect Europe is anyone’s guess.  Hopefully he would listen to his advisers and not continue to poke his nose into the affairs of Europe.  Criticising Merkel and other European leaders is not something that will build relationships and let us hope that the comments he is making about European policies on immigration, for example, are just his own electioneering.

What is needed is something to give the markets a boost.  Shares have continued to spiral downwards over a prolonged period and the price of Oil is continuing to float around the $30 a barrel price – though whether this is due to the normal supply and demand factors or whether it is due to the USA controlling the price by flooding the market for their own political reasons is another question.

 

This communication is for informational purposes only and is not intended to constitute, and should not be construed as, investment advice, investment recommendations or investment research. You should seek advice from a professional adviser before embarking on any financial planning activity. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the information contained in this communication is correct, we are not responsible for any errors or omissions.

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The potential issues facing Gibraltar are felt to be so concerning that a debate on the report was held on March 21 in the House of Lords. The Chief Minister of Gibraltar, Fabian Picardo, attended the debate. At the session Baroness Goldie stated that the economic bonds between the UK and Gibraltar would be maintained and strengthened after Brexit, and Picardo said this was “deeply important” for Gibraltar.

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The PMI records and aggregates the strength of various sectors of the economy and is often used to predict likely changes to interest rates. The fact that data for January indicated the most significant growth in 16 months, led many pundits to speculate on the unlikelihood of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England. And they were right.

The picture of growth was supported by numerous data channels. For example, figures from Rightmove revealed a 2.3 per cent month-on-month upturn on UK house prices in January, the largest ever recorded for the month, and this assisted the annual house price rise figure to 2.7%, the largest increase since 2017.*

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