When judging the likelihood of a Brexit I prefer not to listen to polls as they never seem to get it right. Currently, polls are showing 50-55% to stay in and 45-50% a Brexit depending on which one you look at. I prefer to look at what the real experts are saying, the guys who put their money where their mouths are and use every resource and data available. These are the bookies! Both William Hill and Paddy Power are offering odds of 1/3 that the UK will stay in and 9/4 for a Brexit. This averaged out indicates around a 30% chance of the Brexit happening.
When investing I try to eliminate extra risks for my clients so it is best to keep things simple. If you hold Euros and live in Spain, invest in Euros. If you hold Sterling invest in Sterling and do not change for change’s sake as this will just create additional costs and risks that are not needed.
I have been a fully-qualified financial adviser for 28 years and also understand the needs of expats and the rules that apply to ex-British living and retiring in Spain. So if you need to talk through your own situation then please feel free to contact me and we can have a no obligation discussion about the best way forward for your investments. Get in touch by filling in one of our contact forms.
Have you restructured your international investments?
On the 1st of January 2015, the Portuguese Tax Authorities brought about sweeping changes to its Personal Income Tax Legislation, specifically aimed at but not limited to, previously sheltered international investment structures. Six months into the 2015 fiscal tax year, there seems to be a wait and see attitude to the impending punitive tax burden that will be levied on investments held by both Portuguese nationals and Expat Tax Residents in Portugal.
One thing I do know and that is many international and national people still live in the past, thinking Portugal is a laissez-faire country unable to, with efficacy, diligently collect its taxes.
In the first quarter of 2017, Spain’s Gross Domestic Product (GPD) grew by 0.8 per cent, according to preliminary figures from the Spanish Statistical Institute (INE), which was marginally higher than the previous three months’ growth of 0.7 per cent.
The was a larger expansion than many had predicted, causing the Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, to update the country’s economic growth forecast for 2017 from 2.5 per cent to 2.7 per cent.
“Recent data for the first quarter of the year, as well as national and international forecasts, have pushed us to revise our growth forecast,” the Prime Minister said.