“One theme which could dictate near term direction for markets and which, arguably, Brexit has reignited and brought back to the forefront, is the ailing and fragile state of the Italian banking sector,” Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid commented in his Early Morning Reid note back in July. Italy’s financial sector is plagued by an enormous surfeit of bad loans so great that the government was, in April, forced into rallying bank executives, insurers and investors to put €5 billion (£4.2 billion, $5.57 billion) behind a rescue fund for its weakest banks.
EU rules are rigid and state that bond holders should bail out the banks, as in most countries the holders of the bonds are sophisticated people who have made returns in excess of the safe rate that represents the risk. But if you look at Italy it represents a case where, for a variety of historical reasons, among the bondholders there appear to be a lot of ordinary individuals. If that is the case, when you make them bear the cost you are really going after depositors, this happened in Cyprus and, to a certain extent, is what happened in Spain with CAM Bank and Bankia.
It would appear that the EU rule that you ought to let the bondholders bear the cost looks like it may not be the right rule for Italy. European rigidity may have very high costs both for democracy and for Italy, and for – if there’s a referendum in Italy – the future of the eurozone.
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Located at the Southern tip of the Iberian Peninsula, the British overseas territory of Gibraltar looks South over the confluence of the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. This small but strategically important isthmus of land, is home to over 32,000 people in just 6.7 km2 (2.6 miles2) of land. As a British crown dependency, the laws and language are those of the United Kingdom, but Spanish is also widely spoken along with the hybridised form of the two known as Llanito. Due to its location and close links with the UK, Gibraltar has long been a favoured destination by British expats looking for sunnier climes and an attractive tax regime. Although it’s not quite as well-known as some other offshore territories such as Monaco and the Cayman Islands, Gibraltar tax rates make it a very attractive choice for anyone looking to relocate within easy striking distance of the UK and Western Europe.
Much has happened since I last put pen to paper in the immediate aftermath of the referendum result and I thought it sensible to comment on some of the issues which are emerging from the ‘swirling fog’ that we experiencing. July 24th 2016, reminded me of September 12th 2001 in New York, with people walking around in shock, confused at the attack on the political and economic system. To be angry at the shock of the unexpected result and how that might affect everyone’s life is a natural and rational response, however much it might seem otherwise. Last week I wrote that the result was not a disaster and the financial system was capable of absorbing this shock, in short, my view has not changed.