Employment data from the Office for National Statistics further underlined the positive mood, with the UK unemployment rate unchanged at 3.8 per cent. The figures showed the employment rate at an all-time high of 76.3 per cent, thanks to a 208,000 increase in the number of people in employment during the quarter.**
Interest rates may be approaching an all-time low but, given the overall economic picture, many argued that it was hard to see how the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) could justify interest rate cuts at a time of such unfettered growth.
However, others speculated that an interest rate cut would be a sound strategy to manage economic risks in the short to medium term, rather than delaying a rate cut until the economic picture had deteriorated. Furthermore, as the deadline neared for the Bank of England’s decision, other factors came into play, not least the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak in China as well as the situation at telecommunications giant BT, which saw a 3% drop in revenues in the last quarter, and a 4% fall in core profits which they largely attribute to the impact of the Huawei ruling.***
Furthermore, it was also reported that the number of personal insolvencies in the UK reached its highest level since 2010, with the Insolvency Service reporting 122,181 personal insolvencies in 2019 – up 6% on 2018.
In the end Mark Carney, in his last major act as governor of the Bank of England, announced the MPC’s decision to opt against an interest rate cut but, as many news outlets reported, it had been a knife-edge decision.
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* https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/
** https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment
*** https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-bt-outlook/bt-warns-of-500-million-pounds-hit-from-british-limits-on-huawei-idUKKBN1ZT0MJ
**** https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/jan/30/personal-insolvencies-jump-to-nine-year-high-in-england-and-wales
This communication is for informational purposes only and is not intended to constitute, and should not be construed as, investment advice, investment recommendations or investment research. You should seek advice from a professional adviser before embarking on any financial planning activity. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the information contained in this communication is correct, we are not responsible for any errors or omissions.
Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy on 15 September 2008. With $639 billion in assets and $619 billion in debt. Their bankruptcy filing was the largest in history and prompted an immediate fall in the FTSE 100 of 4%. It was the beginning of a slump that by Christmas of 2008 had resulted in 23% being wiped off the value of Britain’s top 100 companies. As a stock market crash, it ranks alongside the dotcom bubble and the shock of 1987. However, while living standards have flat-lined since that date, the stock market revival has been spectacular. Many investors were, however, spooked by the financial crisis of 2008 and liquidated their investment portfolios. Unfortunately as shown below – they lost out on the bull run of the next 10 years.
It’s 10 years on from the Northern Rock collapse. But have we all become complacent enough again to believe that the banks are now too big to fail. Well wake up and look at the facts.