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Global Recession or Golden Opportunity?

If you already hold equities (shares, bonds, stakes etc.) then be prepared to see a downward turn in your portfolio this month…China´s position has seen ALL markets worldwide follow a downward trend, but fear not, and DO NOT PANIC, for many this could prove to be a blessing in disguise – withdrawing funds is not the answer.

Commodity producing countries such as Brazil are certainly suffering because of low prices but many other parts of the world are better off, seeing lower input costs in manufacturing. Lower oil prices are also resulting in lower diesel and petrol prices, boosting disposable incomes for consumers. It is widely believed that the US will be the first major economy to raise interest rates with much commentary centered around September as the likely starting point. However, the recent further fall in the oil price suggests that inflation levels will remain subdued for the foreseeable future.  Nevertheless, even if rates were to rise next month, it is likely to be a token increase, with subsequent movements very slight indeed. In the UK, inflation is also conspicuous by its absence and any moves seem unlikely until well into next year.

So what does all this mean for YOU?  Share prices have suffered a very sharp correction in the last few weeks, albeit after many stock markets reached all-time highs in the Spring. Valuations are around the average for the last twenty years, so the current weakness offers a great entry point. Moreover, dividend yields remain well above government bond yields, underlining the income attractions of equities. Low commodity prices are likely to keep the lid on inflationary pressures, removing the need to raise interest rates. This suggests that bond yields are likely to remain low for some time. Therefore, while stock markets may remain volatile over the coming months, investors shouldn´t be afraid of taking advantage of the recent dip in prices to add to positions where they can.

In layman´s terms, if you have cash in the bank with an expected low yield, and you are not in any rush to utilise the funds, then there has never been a better time to consider investing medium to long term in the equities markets, with products available that have potential to achieve returns in excess of bank interest rates.

This communication is for informational purposes only and is not intended to constitute, and should not be construed as, investment advice, investment recommendations or investment research. You should seek advice from a professional adviser before embarking on any financial planning activity. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the information contained in this communication is correct, we are not responsible for any errors or omissions.

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The same applies to financial advisers. Not only do clients – and of course the markets – require their calm to steer them through uncertain and uncharted waters, but firms themselves need to stay composed and attentive to ensure that they continue to meet regulatory standards as Brexit unfolds and transition periods take effect.

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Brexit Minister Provides Assurances of “Cooler Heads”

Pension fileThe government has provided further reassurance on the future of expat pensions and other financial products and services post-Brexit, with Brexit secretary Dominic Raab dismissing a Department for Exiting the EU technical paper which had appeared to cast their futures into doubt.

During a press conference, Raab had no hesitation in saying that access to expat pensions was little more than “a practical issue that we will be able to resolve”.

Raab’s statements were measured and entirely unflustered by some of the more recent sensationalist pronouncements on the subject. For example, he carefully explained that although a no-deal Brexit would have an inevitable impact on Britain’s contractual arrangements with EU member states, it was extremely unlikely that individual country to country relationships would suffer.

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