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Global Recession or Golden Opportunity?

If you already hold equities (shares, bonds, stakes etc.) then be prepared to see a downward turn in your portfolio this month…China´s position has seen ALL markets worldwide follow a downward trend, but fear not, and DO NOT PANIC, for many this could prove to be a blessing in disguise – withdrawing funds is not the answer.

Commodity producing countries such as Brazil are certainly suffering because of low prices but many other parts of the world are better off, seeing lower input costs in manufacturing. Lower oil prices are also resulting in lower diesel and petrol prices, boosting disposable incomes for consumers. It is widely believed that the US will be the first major economy to raise interest rates with much commentary centered around September as the likely starting point. However, the recent further fall in the oil price suggests that inflation levels will remain subdued for the foreseeable future.  Nevertheless, even if rates were to rise next month, it is likely to be a token increase, with subsequent movements very slight indeed. In the UK, inflation is also conspicuous by its absence and any moves seem unlikely until well into next year.

So what does all this mean for YOU?  Share prices have suffered a very sharp correction in the last few weeks, albeit after many stock markets reached all-time highs in the Spring. Valuations are around the average for the last twenty years, so the current weakness offers a great entry point. Moreover, dividend yields remain well above government bond yields, underlining the income attractions of equities. Low commodity prices are likely to keep the lid on inflationary pressures, removing the need to raise interest rates. This suggests that bond yields are likely to remain low for some time. Therefore, while stock markets may remain volatile over the coming months, investors shouldn´t be afraid of taking advantage of the recent dip in prices to add to positions where they can.

In layman´s terms, if you have cash in the bank with an expected low yield, and you are not in any rush to utilise the funds, then there has never been a better time to consider investing medium to long term in the equities markets, with products available that have potential to achieve returns in excess of bank interest rates.

This communication is for informational purposes only and is not intended to constitute, and should not be construed as, investment advice, investment recommendations or investment research. You should seek advice from a professional adviser before embarking on any financial planning activity. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the information contained in this communication is correct, we are not responsible for any errors or omissions.

Other News

Auto-Enrolment increases number of savers, but are they saving enough?

Piggy bankStatistics from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) have shown that a record number of savers are now members of workplace pension schemes.

The figures show that the proportion of employees who are contributing to a company pension has risen significantly in the five years since Auto-Enrolment (AE) began.

AE was introduced in 2012 and makes it compulsory for employers to automatically enrol all eligible employees into a pension scheme unless the employee actively opts out. An employee is eligible for AE if they are aged between 22 and the state pension age and have a salary of more than £10,000.

In 2012, prior to AE, 47 per cent of UK employees were enrolled on a company pension scheme. This figure has now risen to 73 per cent in 2017. In other words, there are over 9.5 million more people saving for their retirement than there were five years ago, and it’s mainly thanks to AE.

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The Pensions Black Hole

Meeting financial advisorThere’s quite a buzz around pensions at the moment – and rightly so, as they provide the backbone of our income in our later years. But currently, pension deficits are hitting the news, and figuring them out can still prove difficult.

Pension deficits concern what are commonly known as “final salary pensions” or Defined Benefit schemes.   Final salary or defined benefit (DB) schemes are essentially occupational pension schemes that provide a set level of pension at retirement, the amount of which normally depends on your service and earnings at retirement or in the years immediately preceding when you retire. Because your pensionable salary is used as one part of the formula in order to calculate your pension, a final salary scheme is commonly referred to as a ‘salary related’ scheme. Two common examples of ‘final pensionable salary’ would be your last year’s pensionable earnings or an average of your last 3 years’ pensionable salary.

Recently, there have been high-profile failures of these systems, such as the folding of Monarch Airlines – and the collapse of their pension fund. Initially, it appeared that owners could still walk away with a profit (after new hands tried to turn the airline into a more accessible and “Ryanair-like” product) by offloading debts, and this included dropping the pension fund. Ironically, this was once a major credit to the business. The fund, which is now in the Pension Protection Fund (PPF), had been under speculation of being left short when the business first began to struggle back in 2014, after years of asset-stripping.

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