When judging the likelihood of a Brexit I prefer not to listen to polls as they never seem to get it right. Currently, polls are showing 50-55% to stay in and 45-50% a Brexit depending on which one you look at. I prefer to look at what the real experts are saying, the guys who put their money where their mouths are and use every resource and data available. These are the bookies! Both William Hill and Paddy Power are offering odds of 1/3 that the UK will stay in and 9/4 for a Brexit. This averaged out indicates around a 30% chance of the Brexit happening.
When investing I try to eliminate extra risks for my clients so it is best to keep things simple. If you hold Euros and live in Spain, invest in Euros. If you hold Sterling invest in Sterling and do not change for change’s sake as this will just create additional costs and risks that are not needed.
I have been a fully-qualified financial adviser for 28 years and also understand the needs of expats and the rules that apply to ex-British living and retiring in Spain. So if you need to talk through your own situation then please feel free to contact me and we can have a no obligation discussion about the best way forward for your investments. Get in touch by filling in one of our contact forms.
This communication is for informational purposes only and is not intended to constitute, and should not be construed as, investment advice, investment recommendations or investment research. You should seek advice from a professional adviser before embarking on any financial planning activity. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the information contained in this communication is correct, we are not responsible for any errors or omissions.
Much has happened since I last put pen to paper in the immediate aftermath of the referendum result and I thought it sensible to comment on some of the issues which are emerging from the ‘swirling fog’ that we experiencing. July 24th 2016, reminded me of September 12th 2001 in New York, with people walking around in shock, confused at the attack on the political and economic system. To be angry at the shock of the unexpected result and how that might affect everyone’s life is a natural and rational response, however much it might seem otherwise. Last week I wrote that the result was not a disaster and the financial system was capable of absorbing this shock, in short, my view has not changed.
Portugal is an increasingly popular choice for South Africans who are looking to embrace the adventures and opportunities of expat life in the EU. Making the move can pay dividends as Portugal offers a favourable tax jurisdiction for financially prudent and high-net-worth expats. For example, by investing at least €350,000 in the country, and meeting other criteria, South Africans can secure residency on fairly straightforward terms, while also utilising the tax benefits offered by Portugal’s Non-Habitual Residency programme.