When judging the likelihood of a Brexit I prefer not to listen to polls as they never seem to get it right. Currently, polls are showing 50-55% to stay in and 45-50% a Brexit depending on which one you look at. I prefer to look at what the real experts are saying, the guys who put their money where their mouths are and use every resource and data available. These are the bookies! Both William Hill and Paddy Power are offering odds of 1/3 that the UK will stay in and 9/4 for a Brexit. This averaged out indicates around a 30% chance of the Brexit happening.
When investing I try to eliminate extra risks for my clients so it is best to keep things simple. If you hold Euros and live in Spain, invest in Euros. If you hold Sterling invest in Sterling and do not change for change’s sake as this will just create additional costs and risks that are not needed.
I have been a fully-qualified financial adviser for 28 years and also understand the needs of expats and the rules that apply to ex-British living and retiring in Spain. So if you need to talk through your own situation then please feel free to contact me and we can have a no obligation discussion about the best way forward for your investments. Get in touch by filling in one of our contact forms.
This communication is for informational purposes only and is not intended to constitute, and should not be construed as, investment advice, investment recommendations or investment research. You should seek advice from a professional adviser before embarking on any financial planning activity. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the information contained in this communication is correct, we are not responsible for any errors or omissions.
Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy on 15 September 2008. With $639 billion in assets and $619 billion in debt. Their bankruptcy filing was the largest in history and prompted an immediate fall in the FTSE 100 of 4%. It was the beginning of a slump that by Christmas of 2008 had resulted in 23% being wiped off the value of Britain’s top 100 companies. As a stock market crash, it ranks alongside the dotcom bubble and the shock of 1987. However, while living standards have flat-lined since that date, the stock market revival has been spectacular. Many investors were, however, spooked by the financial crisis of 2008 and liquidated their investment portfolios. Unfortunately as shown below – they lost out on the bull run of the next 10 years.