“One theme which could dictate near term direction for markets and which, arguably, Brexit has reignited and brought back to the forefront, is the ailing and fragile state of the Italian banking sector,” Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid commented in his Early Morning Reid note back in July. Italy’s financial sector is plagued by an enormous surfeit of bad loans so great that the government was, in April, forced into rallying bank executives, insurers and investors to put €5 billion (£4.2 billion, $5.57 billion) behind a rescue fund for its weakest banks.
EU rules are rigid and state that bond holders should bail out the banks, as in most countries the holders of the bonds are sophisticated people who have made returns in excess of the safe rate that represents the risk. But if you look at Italy it represents a case where, for a variety of historical reasons, among the bondholders there appear to be a lot of ordinary individuals. If that is the case, when you make them bear the cost you are really going after depositors, this happened in Cyprus and, to a certain extent, is what happened in Spain with CAM Bank and Bankia.
It would appear that the EU rule that you ought to let the bondholders bear the cost looks like it may not be the right rule for Italy. European rigidity may have very high costs both for democracy and for Italy, and for – if there’s a referendum in Italy – the future of the eurozone.
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Official figures have revealed that pension funds have plummeted a further £25 million into the red. The fall in bond yields – on which pension funds rely – has increased the pressure on the pots available to support final salary scheme pay-outs. At the end of May, the pension backstop PPF (Pension Protection Fund) revealed that the roughly five and a half thousand pension schemes it monitors have a combined deficit of nearly £295 billion. This is almost £25.5 billion worse than a month earlier.
Being an expat has many potential benefits and opportunities, but residing abroad also brings with it certain complex financial considerations. In many ways these can be made all the more complicated if you also happen to have foreign husband or wife, particularly in regard to your expat pension planning.